Is McCain's Only Chance 'Racial Resistance Among White Voters'

Is it too late for McCain? Read this article: New York Times, History Suggests McCain Faces an Uphill Battle, which concludes that history suggests that McCain has fallen too far behind, too late in the campaign, to overtake Obama. The final part of the article states:

Since 1948, front-running candidates have typically preserved three-fourths of their October leads, said Larry M. Bartels, a political scientist at Princeton. Applying statistical theory to current polls, he pegged Mr. Obama’s chance of winning the popular vote at “a little over 90 percent.”

Mr. Bartels noted three factors that might skew the results. Two of them, a potential surge in voter turnout and the tendency of undecided voters to punish the party holding the White House during an economic downturn, appear to favor Mr. Obama. The third, racial resistance among white voters, favors Mr. McCain.

Focus on White Voters

Ahead in once-reliably red states like Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia, Mr. Obama need not win any new voters. If he holds his 50 percent share in Gallup’s survey, and third-party candidates like Bob Barr and Ralph Nader draw 3 percent collectively, Mr. McCain can pull no closer than 47 percent.

The McCain campaign sees scant opportunity to erode Mr. Obama’s strong support among blacks and his two-to-one edge among Hispanics. But Mr. McCain’s strategists think that one in five white voters — roughly 15 percent of the electorate — remains open to persuasion.

The campaign says that those voters tend to be younger, single, less educated and female, and that they also include senior citizens distressed over sagging investments. Those voters are the target audience for Mr. McCain’s recent attacks on Mr. Obama’s ties to William Ayers, a founder of the Weather Underground.

If one-third of those voters shift allegiance from Mr. Obama to Mr. McCain, they will produce a 10-percentage-point swing, wiping out Mr. Obama’s lead. Mr. Obama’s strategists say voter preferences have hardened enough to make that difficult.

Mr. McCain’s assessment of whether it is possible may influence his campaign’s efforts to assail Mr. Obama’s character. Facing heavy criticism, Mr. McCain late last week turned ambivalent."

Is the suggestion to focus on the "racial resistance among white voters" the same as playing the race card?

And if McCain focuses on the "racial resistance among white voters," will it do more harm than good for McCain and the country?

If so, then it is lose - lose for McCain.

This Guy Should Be Treasury Secretary

Another great post about the economic mess by Barry Ritholtz. From his latest post, Goal: Increase Minority Homeowners by 5.5 Million in a Decade:

Guess who's goal this was? You might be surprised:

"More and more people own their homes in America today. Two-thirds of all Americans own their homes, yet we have a problem here in America because few than half of the Hispanics and half the African Americans own the home. That's a home ownership gap. It's a -- it's a gap that we've got to work together to close for the good of our country, for the sake of a more hopeful future. We've got to work to knock down the barriers that have created a home ownership gap.

I set an ambitious goal. It's one that I believe we can achieve. It's a clear goal, that by the end of this decade we'll increase the number of minority homeowners by at least 5.5 million families . . .

Home ownership is also an important part of our economic vitality. If -- when we meet this project, this goal, according to our Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, we will have added an additional $256 billion to the economy by encouraging 5.5 million new home owners in America; the activity -- the economic activity stimulated with the additional purchasers, the additional buyers, the additional demand will be upwards of $256 billion. And that's important because it will help people find work."

- George W. Bush, U.S. President, October 15, 2002 1:55 P.M.

And Ritholtz argues again:

"As a mortgage salesman, you only lose your a fee if a borrower defaults within 3 or 6 months. What do you do to maximize your returns? The best way to do that -- to put people in houses that would not default in 90 days -- was the 2/28 ARM mortgages. Cheap teaser rates for 24 months, then the big reset. By then, it was no longer your problem.

Can you grasp what a monumental change this was? Instead of making sure that borrowers could pay back ALL OF THE 30 YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE, you only had to find people who could afford the teaser rate for a a few months. THIS WAS AN ENORMOUS AND UNPRECEDENTED SHIFT IN LENDING.

This is the key to the hosuing boom and bust, anbd ultimately underlies the entire credit freeze. And, it would not have been possible without the Greenspan ultra-low rates, which made the teaser portion (the "2" of the 2/28) of these mortgages so attractive.

~~~

Those who continue to blame the CRA, Fannie Mae, etc. reveal their fundamental misunderstanding of how credit operates in general, what the financing process was like from 2002-07, and how this situation came to pass. Or worse, they understand it, and choose to lie about it anyway for partisan political purposes.

You either understand these simple facts, or you don't. If you cannot comprehend this, well, then, I am at a loss as to what that says about your cognitive functioning. But if you understand this, but spit out the nonsense anyway, then you are merely a partisan with no respect for the truth.

And that seems to be the main people blaming the CRA and Fannie/Freddie for the credit/housing crisis -- those folks who either can't think -- or wont.

Is Joe Roberts Having a Meltdown

Joe Roberts went from being the Democrat candidate for U.S. Representative, House District 1 in Florida, to being an independent wondering what he should do next in his quest for elected office, to losing as a Republican in the Florida House of Representatives, District 2 race -- all in one year.

Quite an accomplishment. Now he seems to be having a meltdown of sorts, ranting about conspiracies. See Rick's Blog, Joe Roberts on meltdown.

Did he get bitten by some rabid Republi-con?

This Man is a Republi-con

Tim Mahoney, the Democrat who succeeded Mark Foley after he resigned because of a sex scandal, is now embroiled in a sex scandal of his own. See New York Times, Sex Scandal Shakes Race for Congress in Florida.

In a January 20 telephone call that was recorded and played for his employees (what was he thinking) Mahoney told the woman:

"You work at my pleasure, if you do the job that I think you should do, you get to keep your job. Whenever I don’t feel like you’re doing your job, then you lose your job. And guess what: The only person that matters is guess who? Me."

While it might seem funny, 'she works for his pleasure and does the job he wants,' it sounds like he was coercing her for sex. If so, he should be charged with rape, extortion, whatever. He shouldn't be allowed to just resign like Foley.

Republi-con BS on Government Regulations

We've all heard the Republi-con BS on less government regulation. See this graph, New York Times, Regulatory Spending, by Administration, and let's talk about who favors more government control.

Republi-cons also hurt the bottom line, profit. See New York Times, Bulls, Bears, Donkeys and Elephants, which states:

"Since 1929, Republicans and Democrats have each controlled the presidency for nearly 40 years. So which party has been better for American pocketbooks and capitalism as a whole? Well, here’s an experiment: imagine that during these years you had to invest exclusively under either Democratic or Republican administrations. How would you have fared?

As of Friday, a $10,000 investment in the S.& P. stock market index* would have grown to $11,733 if invested under Republican presidents only, although that would be $51,211 if we exclude Herbert Hoover’s presidency during the Great Depression. Invested under Democratic presidents only, $10,000 would have grown to $300,671 at a compound rate of 8.9 percent over nearly 40 years."

The article includes a nice graph the Obama campaign should run in an ad.

Republi-con Fear, Anger, and Hatred

More about the Republi-con strategy of fear, anger, and hatred. Read Washington Post, McCain and the Raging Right.

Profile of a Republi-con Operative

Interesting read about another one of Sheeeepish Haaannity's 'Great Americans.'

Too Early to Be Countin the Chickens

Some are now talking of an Obama landslide, with "larger Democratic majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate — and perhaps a filibuster-proof margin there."

As the old saying goes, there is a risk counting your chickens before the eggs hatch, but perhaps not in this election, given the state of affairs in the McCain campaign (see below).

McCain Endorses Obama

Not quite, but "John McCain likes Barack Obama. He admires and respects Obama. He believes Obama is "very impressive, he's thoughtful, he's centrist." Obama has "probably got a great future." He is "a very honest and fine person" -- "absolutely" qualified to be president."

Fear, Anger, and Hatred

Without fear, anger and hatred, where would the Republi-cons be.

At a rally in Lakeville, Minnesota McCain found himself struggling to control the fear, anger and hatred some of his rabid supports have been promoting. His running mate Sarah Palin stepped up her own attacks against Obama, often inspiring outbursts complete with cries of "terrorist" and "off with his head." Even an older woman said that that Obama could not be trusted because he is an 'Arab.'

In Northwest Florida, one of the finer members (presumably) of the Republi-con party, "decided to illustrate [to his seventh grade civils class] the concept of 'change' by writing 'Come Help A N----r Get Elected' on the white board in front of his class.

Then there are the officially sanctioned comparisons to OBL.

I'm sure Sheeepish Haaannity considers them all 'Great American.'

But consider what John Lewis said this weekend:

"As one who was a victim of violence and hate during the height of the Civil Rights Movement, I am deeply disturbed by the negative tone of the McCain-Palin campaign. What I am seeing today reminds me too much of another destructive period in American history. Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are sowing the seeds of hatred and division, and there is no need for this hostility in our political discourse.

During another period, in the not too distant past, there was a governor of the state of Alabama named George Wallace who also became a presidential candidate. George Wallace never threw a bomb. He never fired a gun, but he created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who only desired to exercise their constitutional rights. Because of this atmosphere of hate, four little girls were killed one Sunday morning when a church was bombed in Birmingham, Alabama.

As public figures with the power to influence and persuade, Sen. McCain and Governor Palin are playing with fire, and if they are not careful, that fire will consume us all. They are playing a very dangerous game that disregards the value of the political process and cheapens our entire democracy. We can do better. The American people deserve better."

It is true, we can do better. Thankfully, even McCain finds the attacks over the top. McCain responded to the lady in Lakeville, saying "No, ma'am, he's a decent family man, a citizen, who I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues. And that's what this campaign is all about."

But the Republi-cons don't think that is the way to win an election, so it will fear, anger, and hatred, from now until the election. McCain won't win many independents with that strategy.

Republi-con Lies

So many lies, so little time to respond:

• McClatchy Newspapers, Private sector loans, not Fannie or Freddie, triggered crisis, which states in part:
  
  

  "Commentators say that's what triggered the stock market meltdown and the freeze on credit. They've specifically targeted the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which the federal government seized on Sept. 6, contending that lending to poor and minority Americans caused Fannie's and Freddie's financial problems.

• Federal housing data reveal that the charges aren't true, and that the private sector, not the government or government-backed companies, was behind the soaring subprime lending at the core of the crisis.

• Subprime lending offered high-cost loans to the weakest borrowers during the housing boom that lasted from 2001 to 2007. Subprime lending was at its height from 2004 to 2006.

  Federal Reserve Board data show that:

• More than 84 percent of the subprime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending institutions.
• 
  
• Private firms made nearly 83 percent of the subprime loans to low- and moderate-income borrowers that year.
• 
  
• Only one of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006 was directly subject to the housing law that's being lambasted by conservative critics.
  
  

  The "turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into 2007," the President's Working Group on Financial Markets reported Friday.

• Conservative critics claim that the Clinton administration pushed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to make home ownership more available to riskier borrowers with little concern for their ability to pay the mortgages.

• "I don't remember a clarion call that said Fannie and Freddie are a disaster. Loaning to minorities and risky folks is a disaster," said Neil Cavuto of Fox News."
  

• ACORN Press Release, ACORN Response to Senator McCain’s Smear Ad
  
  "ACORN President Maude Hurd released the following statement today in response to the McCain campaign’s new ad claiming that, among other things, ACORN is responsible for the mortgage crisis:
  
  ”For almost a decade, ACORN, a community organization of 400,000 families in neighborhoods across the country, has been fighting against the predatory lending practices that have robbed our members of their homes, destabilized neighborhoods, and roiled the global economy.”
  
  “In his newest ad, John McCain’s campaign bizarrely claims, “ACORN forced banks to issue risky home loans, the same types of loans that caused the financial crisis we’re in today.” Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, ACORN has worked successfully to help working class families get good home loans on fair terms from legitimate banks and has fought vigorously against predatory lenders who have ripped off families in our communities. These predatory loans caused the crisis.”
  
  “For more than a decade, ACORN members have held protests, released reports, and advocated for regulations to protect homeowners from predatory lenders. ACORN organizers and volunteers have been working day and night to help victims of the GOP economic meltdown to save their
  homes from foreclosure. In fact, ACORN has brought class action lawsuits against several predatory lenders, and has lobbied the Federal Reserve and Congress in support of regulations against predatory lending. ACORN has even been successful in convincing many lenders to treat homeowners more fairly and help families be able to make their mortgage payments and save their homes.”
  
  “Unfortunately, the Bush administration and Congressional Republicans like John McCain have blocked the sensible regulations that ACORN and others proposed that would have averted the mortgage meltdown. If John McCain thinks that community organizers caused the foreclosure crisis, he knows even less about the economy than previously thought.”
  
  ”John McCain and the Republicans are desperately trying to shift the blame for the economic crisis they caused with a philosophy of deregulation and indifference to homeowners. All the grainy footage and creepy music in the world can’t cancel out some simple, basic facts, and the facts about the economy are not on John McCain’s side.”"
  

Without the lies, the American public would see the Republi-cons for what they are, largely responsible for the current economic mess. Without the lies, the Republi-cons would be swamped in this election.

Don't listen to the Republi-con lies!

Sounds Like Something Palin and Her Husband Might Do

Someone should be fired. Read New York Times, Citizen Terrorists Deleted, which highlights the abuse of power in the so-called 'war on terror.'

If you think OBL wants to take away our freedom and liberties, he's getting us doing the job for him.

More on the Economic Mess

Another great article, New York Times, Taking Hard New Look at a Greenspan Legacy, which examines the 'legacy' Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

Five years ago, Warren E. Buffett warned that derivatives, complex financial instruments designed to hedge against risk, were "financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal." George Soros avoids using derivatives "because we don’t really understand how they work." And Felix G. Rohatyn described derivatives as potential "hydrogen bombs." It turns out that derivatives are the crux of the current economic mess, and and Greenspan supported and promoted their use.

The article includes a great graphic, Growth of a Complex Market,which shows the growth of the derivative market from $106 trillion in 2002 to $531.2 trillion in 2008 and credit default swaps from $2.2 trillion in 2002 to $54.6 trillion in 2008. Yikes!!

What a mess.

New Stock Market Terms

CEO --Chief Embezzlement Officer.

CFO-- Corporate Fraud Officer.

BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.

VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.

P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.

BROKER -- What my broker has made me.

STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.

STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.

STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.

FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.

MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.

CASH FLOW-- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.

WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.

PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use.

Posted for WEBY

From Mike:

"Stock Market Quote of the Day: This is worse than divorce. I have lost half of my money and still have my husband ."

Show Link(s)

To listen to the ATF call to Pensacola Police Department dispatch in the Kilpatrick case , click here.

And read the story in the Santa Rosa Press Gazette.

Link to website of Jim Bryan for Congress.

The Rats Are Abandoning Ship

Is conservative columnist David Brooks endorsing Obama? See Huffington Post, David Brooks: Sarah Palin "Represents A Fatal Cancer To The Republican Party"

The son of William F. Buckley has decided to vote for Obama. See The Daily Beast, Sorry, Dad, I'm Voting for Obama.

Who next? You?

UPDATE:

Lincoln Chafee, a former Republican senator from Rhode Island, he now calls himself an independent:

"That's not my kind of Republicanism, I saw what Bush and Cheney did. They came in with a (budget) surplus and a stable world, and look what's happened now. In eight short years they've taken one peaceful and prosperous world, and they've torn it into tatters."

[As for McCain's choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for his running mate,] "there's no question she's totally unqualified."

Bob Eleveld, Kent County Republican chairman who led McCain's West Michigan campaign in 2000, and now describe himself as a member of the party's moderate wing:

"I think the straight talk is gone, I think McCain's pandering to the Christian right. That's some straight talk from me."

Former Republican Michigan Gov. William Milliken:

"He is not the McCain I endorsed. He keeps saying, 'Who is Barack Obama?' I would ask the question, 'Who is John McCain?' because his campaign has become rather disappointing to me."

SECOND UPDATE

Buckley's son resigns from the Nation Review, he was "effectively fatwahed by the conservative movement" after endorsing Obama.

See also Washington Post, National Review Boots Buckley Son For Obama Boost. When Buckley endorsed Obama he quoted his father as saying, "You know, I've spent my entire lifetime separating the Right from the kooks." Apparently that didn't sit especially well with National Review editor Rich Lowry. I guess the truth hurts.

How Low Will It Go

No, not Bush's approval rating, that might be in negative territory.

How low will the stock market indexes go. Read, The Big Picture, 10 Bullish Charts, Signals, Indicators. Barry Ritholz suggests that "are increasingly close to a bottom." I hope so.

Hell Hath No Fury Like The Palin Family

It was only three dozen phone calls, just checkin on the ex-brother-in-law, making sure that eh is OK in that 'Safety Bear' costume. A chip off the old Cheney she is.

See: New York Times, Palins Repeatedly Pressed Case Against Trooper.

Watch out before you marry into the Palin Cosa Nostra.

UPDATE: Read:

New York Times, Alaska Inquiry Concludes Palin Abused Powers

"Gov. Sarah Palin abused the powers of her office by pressuring subordinates to fire her former brother-in-law, a state trooper, an investigation concluded."

Time, What the Troopergate Report Really Says.

"Did Governor Sarah Palin abuse the power of her office in trying to get her former brother-in-law, State Trooper Mike Wooten, fired? Yes. . .


Is the Palin administration shockingly amateurish? Yes, it is. Disturbingly so. . .

A harsh verdict? Consider the report's findings. Not only did people at almost every level of the Palin administration engage in repeated inappropriate contact with Walt Monegan and other high-ranking officials at the Department of Public Safety, but Monegan and his peers constantly warned these Palin disciples that the contact was inappropriate and probably unlawful. Still, the emails and calls continued — in at least one instance on recorded state trooper phone lines.

The state's head of personnel, Annette Kreitzer, called Monegan and had to be warned that personnel issues were confidential. The state's attorney general, Talis Colberg, called Monegan and had to be reminded that the call was putting both men in legal jeopardy, should Wooten decide to sue. The governor's chief of staff met with Monegan and had to be reminded by Monegan that, "This conversation is discoverable ... You don't want Wooten to own your house, do you?" Monegan consistently emerges as the adult in these conversations, while the Palin camp displays a childish impetuousness and sense of entitlement."

Washington Post, Alaska's Family Feud

"[Palin] and her husband pursuing a personal vendetta against the trooper, Mike Wooten, despite repeated warnings that they were impermissibly intruding into internal -- and already concluded -- disciplinary issues. Likewise, Ms. Palin's decision to repudiate her earlier pledge to cooperate fully with the inquiry does not offer assurance about how she would conduct herself as vice president."

Comrade Bush

After the bailout of AIG and Wall Street banks, as well as the auto industry, the Bush administration is now considering a partial nationalization of some banks. See Washington Post, The End Of American Capitalism

So who is the real socialist?

P.S. Actually, this isn't socialist, it is communist.

Class Today

Listen to the voice of wisdom and reason in a wilderness of partisan rhetoric -- No political insanity, no conservative hypocrisy, no liberal foolishness -- Just straight talk, straight at you, and that’s no bull!!

NoBullU will be on air today, Friday, from 4:05 to 6 p.m. at 1330 AM WEBY and on line.

Tune in, call in, but only if you can handle the truth!

PANIC

There is PANIC, not just on Wall Street, but also within the Republi-con Party. Delusional ranting, calls for more anger, race-baiting, anti-Christ remark, and even efforts to form third parties. After eight years of George W. (The Worst) Bush, the house of cards comes tumbling down. Fear, anger, hatred -- ye reap what ye sow, Republi-cons, ye reap what ye sow.

God is all merciful and wise!

UPDATE: Read Washington Post, Anger Is Crowd's Overarching Emotion at McCain Rally

Posted for WEBY

From Mike:

"Saturday Night Live: Tina Fey does Perfect Palin YouTube has blocked 'em. But NBC has them on their site:

• Palin and Hilary
• Palin and Couric
• Palin and Biden

Is wanting to see these Tina Fey skits continue on SNL a valid reason to vote for McCain-Palin?"

Professor NoBullBert says:

"Answer, no, but Mike gets an A for having a sense of humor."

Pandering to Fear, Anger, and Hatred

Republi-cons have pandered to fear, anger, and hatred for years. I had hoped for better from McCain, what with all the references to honor, but McCain is just another Republi-con. See Washington Post, Rage in the Town of Bethlehem.

Fear, Anger, and Hatred, a great election strategy for the Republi-cons, just not a very effective governing philosophy.

Posted for WEBY

From Mike:

"What the Democrats and the mainstream press (my apologies for being redundant) won't tell you... This was published on September 30, 1999 during Clinton's presidency, so this is not a matter of hindsight being 20/20. This is critical to read and forward!!! Subprime Mortgage Mess: How it got started: read New York Times, Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending

And then it gets worse..... read this September 11, 2003, article about how the Bush Administration tried to prevent the mortgage meltdown and was stopped by the Democrats: New York Times, New Agency Proposed to Oversee Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae"

Comment from Professor NoBullBert:

"Mike gets a C for effort, and a D for understanding. Read my posts label Bailout, especially the following:

• More Proof That Republi-cons are at Fault for the Economic Mess

• Ya Get the Government Ya Want

• Don't Blame FDR and Carter for the Finanacial Mess and Bailout

• Who is to Blame for the Financial Mess"

The Bailout is Not Working

The bailout doesn't seem to be working. The problem isn’t just $1 trillion in subprime loans, the problem is $62trillion in credit default swap liability (CDS) for collateral debt obligations (CDOs) that no one can unravel or value (or even understand).

What is a CDO or CDS? Imagine taking paper debt like mortgages, subprime mortgages, car loans, credit cards loans, and pretty much anything you can imagine. Now combine and mix the paper in a blender, spiking it with worthless rhetorical hyperbole that derivatives are the new paradigm of investments. Then pour the mixture in a pyramid of champagne glasses, to represent the varying levels of return (and risk), with the higher the glass, the lower the risk return and risk. That represents the CDOs. Now as you sell the mess, insure against the risk of the CDOs decreasing in value with CDSs. Presto, $1 trillion of bad loans is transmuted into $62 trillion in faux wealth. An alchemist would be proud.

That I think is a fair metaphor for the problem, and because of the scope of the problem the Feds don't know what to do. The 1929 depression offers a valuable lesson. A recent article in Time, Are Paulson and Bernanke Running Out of Options? states that:

"After the 1929 collapse, which at its worst left a quarter of the workforce jobless, the U.S. instituted safeguards to ensure liquidity, confidence and trust in the U.S. financial system. There were four pillars: insuring the bank deposits of everyday Americans, allowing access to government funds in case of a panic, providing a regime for the orderly failure of badly run companies and limiting how much credit could be leveraged off a particular asset."

The government should do the same now, defend depository institutions and provide a regime for the orderly failure of badly run non-depository financial institutions and insurance companies. In the process the government and the public will have to make some tough choices and learn to live within a budget.

What do you think?

P.S. Somebody should pay me for this, I prefer gold until further notice.

Iraq Ain't Over Til Bush Quits Kickin the Can

Another problem for the next president is Iraq. George W. (The Worst) Bush has been kicking the can for so long, most have forgotten about Iraq. Read McClatchy Newspapers, New U.S. intelligence report warns 'victory' not certain in Iraq:

"A nearly completed high-level U.S. intelligence analysis warns that unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions in Iraq could unleash a new wave of violence, potentially reversing the major security and political gains achieved over the last year. . . .

U.S. officials say last year's surge of 30,000 troops, all of whom have been withdrawn, was just one reason for the improvements. Other factors include the truce declared by anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al Sadr, the leader of an Iran-backed Shiite Muslim militia; and the enlistment of former Sunni insurgents in Awakening groups created by the U.S. military to fight al Qaida in Iraq and other extremists.

The draft NIE, however, warns that the improvements in security and political progress, like the recent passage of a provincial election law, are threatened by lingering disputes between the majority Shiite Arabs, Sunni Arabs, Kurds and other minorities, the U.S. officials said."

Another fine mess the Republi-cons got us into.

Bush, The Lamest Duck

Listen to George W. (The Worst) Bush in his own words as he tries to duck responsibility.

After losing this year's Nobel Peace Prize, Bush is still hoping to win the Nobel Prize for Economics.

More Proof That Republi-cons are at Fault for the Economic Mess

Read it and weep. Bush promoted aggressive lending to first-time home buyers. In a speech titled 'Remarks by the President in a Conversation on Homeownership' made at the Phoenix Carpenters Training Center in 2004 Bush said:

"One other thing I've done, is I've called on private sector mortgage banks and banks to be more aggressive about lending money to first-time home buyers. And the response has been really good. There's a lot of people in this -- our communities around the country that deeply care about the issue of homeownership, and they've been responsive."

So instead of blaming FDR and Carter, it is important to understand the many and complex reasons for the current economic mess. Barry Ritholtz sums it up well:

"To repeat my prior arguments, the proximate cause of the Housing crisis were 1) Ultra-low rates; and 2) Abdication of traditional lending standards, thanks to 3) originators ability to resell mortgages for securitization purposes, and hence, 4) not have to worry about loan defaults.

The credit crisis was caused by 1) the above securitized mortgage paper, that was 2) rated triple AAA by Moody's and Standard & Poors, which then 3) Which was then "insured" by credit default swaps (CDS) -- the unreserved for, shadow insurance products 4) whose exemption was made possible by the Commodities Futures Modernization Act. That legislation exempted these derivatives from any supervision or regulation. The lack of reserve requirements is why there is now $62 trillion in CDS, many of which will never pay their counter parties the promised insurance."

Ritholtz also shows that it was excessive deregulation and not the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) of 1977 that is responsible for the fine mess we find ourselves in. He argues:

"Let's clarify the causes of current circumstances. Ask yourself the following questions about the impact of the Community Reinvestment Act and/or the role of Fannie & Freddie:

• Did the 1977 legislation, or any other legislation since, require banks to not verify income or payment history of mortgage applicants?

• 50% of subprime loans were made by mortgage service companies not subject comprehensive federal supervision; another 30% were made by banks or thrifts which are not subject to routine supervision or examinations. How was this caused by either CRA or GSEs ?

• What about "No Money Down" Mortgages (0% down payments) ? Were they required by the CRA? Fannie? Freddie?

• Explain the shift in Loan to value from 80% to 120%: What was it in the Act that changed this traditional lending requirement?

• Did any Federal legislation require real estate agents and mortgage writers to use the same corrupt appraisers again and again? How did they manage to always come in at exactly the purchase price, no matter what?

• Did the CRA require banks to develop automated underwriting (AU) systems that emphasized speed rather than accuracy in order to process the greatest number of mortgage apps as quickly as possible?

• How exactly did legislation force Moody's, S&Ps and Fitch to rate junk paper as Triple AAA?

• What about piggy back loans? Were banks required by Congress to lend the first mortgage and do a HELOC for the down payment -- at the same time?

• Internal bank memos showed employees how to cheat the system to get poor mortgages prospects approved that shouldn't have been: Titled How to Get an "Iffy" loan approved at JPM Chase. (Was circulating that memo also a FNM/FRE/CRA requirement?)

• The four biggest problem areas for housing (by price decreases) are: Phoenix, Arizona; Las Vegas, Nevada; Miami, Florida, and San Diego, California. Explain exactly how these affluent, non-minority regions were impacted by the Community Reinvesment Act ?

• Did the GSEs require banks to not check credit scores? Assets? Income?

• What was it about the CRA or GSEs that mandated fund managers load up on an investment product that was hard to value, thinly traded, and poorly understood

• What was it in the Act that forced banks to make "interest only" loans? Were "Neg Am loans" also part of the legislative requirements also?

• Consider this February 2003 speech by Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozlilo at the American Bankers National Real Estate Conference. He advocated zero down payment mortgages -- was that a CRA requirement too, or just a grab for more market share, and bad banking?

The answer to all of the above questions is no, none, and nothing at all.

The CRA is not remotely one of the proximate causes of the current credit crunch, Housing collapse,and mortgage debacle. As I detailed in Barron's, there is plenty of things to be angry at D.C. about -- but this ain't one of them.

If you were to ask me to reveal the prime causative factor for the Housing boom, I would point you to Fed Chairman Greenspan taking rates to 1%, and then leaving them there for a year. The prime factor in the bust was nonfeasance on the Fed's part in supervising bank lending, allowing banks to give money to people who couldn't possibly pay it back.

The root legislative cause of the credit crisis was excessive deregulation. From exempting derivatives from regulation (2000 Commodities Futures Modernization Act) to failing to adequately oversee ratings agencies that slapped a triple AAA on junk paper, the pendulum swung too far away from reasonable oversight. By taking the refs off of the field and erroneously expecting market participants could self-regulate, the powers that be in DC gave the players on Wall Street enough rope to hang themselves with -- which they promptly did."

Next thing ya know, the Republi-cons will blame little green men.

McCain Should Finish The Campaign With Honor

McCain should finish the campaign with honor.

No matter all the nutty things he's done, and vile things his campaign has said, given the economic situation, it seems unlikely that McCain will win over the independent voters he needs. Read Time, They Liked Him, They Really Liked Him and take a look at recent polls by Time (scroll down for poll on the right side, yes I know, Internet polls are not scientific, but the results are interesting nonetheless) and you'll see that it ain't McCain that they are likin.

McCain claims that he is an honorable man. He knows the mission of the U.S. Naval Academy:

"To develop midshipmen morally, mentally and physically and to imbue them with the highest ideals of duty, honor and loyalty in order to provide graduates who are dedicated to a career of naval service and have potential for future development in mind and character to assume the highest responsibilities of command, citizenship and government."

Because of George W. (The Worst) Bush, McCain will be denied the presidency twice. (You might remember that in 2000 Bush slandered McCain with rumors that he had fathered an out of wedlock a black baby, she was actually a Bangladeshi infant girl adopted by the McCains. Bush also spread rumors of mental instability. All to stop McCain from winning South Carolina, Lee Atwater's home state, after McCain had won the primary in New Hampshire.) (BTW, why do military folk slavishly love the Republi-cons. Another military victim of the Bush slime machine was Max Cleland, who had three limbs blown off in Vietnam. Republi-cons placing him next to Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein in television ads for the 2002 Georgia Senate election.)

Mr. McCain, after the campaign is over, will you have your honor?

NoBullBert is WEBY’s Gosh Darn, Fersure, You Betcha Maverick

Listen to the voice of wisdom and reason in a wilderness of partisan rhetoric -- No political insanity, no conservative hypocrisy, no liberal foolishness -- Just straight talk, straight at you, and that’s no bull!!

On air Fridays from 4:05 to 6 p.m. at 1330 AM WEBY and on line.

But only if you can handle the truth!

McCain's No Maverick

He proudly wears the Republi-con brand, so McCain ain't no maverick.

McCain's Mud Pies and Palin's Patriotic Loans From China (That The Kids Will Payback)

Republi-cons hate Maureen Dowd. Find out why by reading column today, New York Times, Mud Pies for ‘That One.’ In it she argues that "John McCain has long been torn between wanting to succeed and serving a higher cause. Right now, the drive to succeed is trumping any loftier aspirations."

Thomas Friedman's column today, New York Times, Palin’s Kind of Patriotism, is also worth a read. In it he says "Do you think borrowing money from China is more patriotic than raising it in taxes from Americans?” That is not putting America first. That is selling America first."

He also said "putting the country in the position where a total novice like Sarah Palin could be asked to steer us through possibly the most serious economic crisis of our lives is flat out reckless. It is the opposite of conservative."

Republi-cons are not conservative, they are delusional.

Palin Praises a Terrorist

Sarah Palin is pals with, and praised and asked for God's blessing for, Joe Vogler, the raging anti-American who founded the Alaska Independence Party. Read about at Salon.com, The Palins' un-American activities.

Palin forgot that people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

For you non-Republi-cons out there remember -- sticks and stones may brake our bones, but a crap fight will make us all stink. Stick with the issues, this year the Republi-cons lose on the issues.

Taxpayers are Chumps

After the $85 million bailout, AIG executives held a week-long retreat for its executives at the St. Regis Resort in Monarch Beach, Calif. The cost of $440,000 included $200,000 for rooms, $150,000 for meals and $23,000 for the spa. Read about it here and here.

More proof that the bailout was a con job.

The War on The Middle Class

What are the causes of the economic crisis, They include ignorance, regulatory and oversignt failures, and the relentless Republi-con war on the middle class over the past several decades, on behalf of the controling corporate interest of the party (social conservatives are just voting suckers). Read more, New York Times, A Fool’s Paradise by Bob Herbert. He thinks that what "we haven’t paid close enough attention to is the fact that there haven’t been enough good paying jobs to sustain an adequate standard of living."

Of course, thanks to China Inc., AKA Wal-Mart, the American standard of living has peaked. See New York Times, What’s Your Consumption Factor by Jared Diamond.

It was good while it lasted, but the party is over.

Are you a Republi-con? If so, are you a rich corporate Republi-con, or the conservative sucker?

The Great Palin May Walk on Water

The Great Palin will honor us here in Pensacola with a personal appearance today. And the local media will cover it like some big cultural event. Kids are even being excused from school. Of course there will be no press conference appropriate for a political candidate, with questions and answers, but perhaps she will walk on water.

If the media has any time, I recommend they read the following:

• Washington Post, This Debate's Biggest Loser
  
• Washington Post, The Flimflam Strategy
  

Who is the Real John McCain, Part II

I once admired John McCain, but I have my doubts after reading the none too flattering bio of McCain in Rolling Stone, Make-Believe Maverick. It is a "closer look at the life and career of John McCain [that] reveals a disturbing record of recklessness and dishonesty."

The McCain Campaign

Lies, distortion, distractions, character assassination, stunts, gimmicks, erratic moves, and a Hail Mary or two, standard Rovian tactics, nothing maverick-y about it.

Wall Street Say Thanks Suckers!

On your behalf, the government just agreed to give Wall Street a $700 billion bailout. That amounts to about $2,330 per person for everyone in America. Who need your help.? These Wall Street executives, who collectively took home more than $1 billion in pay 2003 to 2007.

Thanks to Congress, we've been suckered.

The Republi-con Squel, McBush and Mini Cheney

At the vice presidential debates on Thursday, Sarah "Mini Cheney" Palin made it known, in her usual opaque way, that she clearly admires Cheney's views:

"Well, our founding fathers were very wise there in allowing through the Constitution much flexibility there in the office of the vice president. And we will do what is best for the American people in tapping into that position and ushering in an agenda that is supportive and cooperative with the president's agenda in that position. Yeah, so I do agree with him that we have a lot of flexibility in there, and we'll do what we have to do to administer very appropriately the plans that are needed for this nation. And it is my executive experience that is partly to be attributed to my pick as V.P. with McCain, not only as a governor, but earlier on as a mayor, as an oil and gas regulator, as a business owner. It is those years of experience on an executive level that will be put to good use in the White House also."

Listen to Palin's own words in this humorous animated editorial cartoon.

But Mini Cheney is no Cheney says blogger Marcy Wheeler, who writes:

"Dick Cheney has succeeded because he is a master of bureaucracy. He knows how to manipulate the machines of our government at every level--and does so with consummate skill.

Palin, by contrast, can't even manage to pull off personal vendettas in Alaska's small government without leaving blood and tracks in the snow revealing her work. Sure, she's got Cheney's instinct for punishing disloyalty. But aside from that, she's got none of Cheney's skill."

And see this editorial cartoon.

Now That Would Be Scary

One thousand George Bushes and one thousand Dick Cheneys, now that would be scary. But rocker Bruce Springsteen has a message of hope:

"I've continued to find, wherever I go, America remains a repository of people's hopes, possibilities, and desires, and that despite the terrible erosion to our standing around the world, accomplished by our recent administration, we remain, for many, a house of dreams. One thousand George Bushes and one thousand Dick Cheneys will never be able to tear that house down."

Bush's Rovian Politics of Fear

McCain's campiagn has learned that fear can be an effective tools to achieve a political objective. Read this from the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), Statement on Congressional Approval of Bailout, which states in part:

"This is the first time in the history of the United States that the president has sought to provoke a financial panic to get legislation through Congress. While this has proven to be a successful political strategy, it marks yet another low point in American politics.

It was incredibly irresponsible for President Bush to tell the American people on national television that the country could be facing another Great Depression. By contrast, when we actually were in the Great Depression, President Roosevelt said that, "we have nothing to fear, but fear itself."

It was even more irresponsible for him to seize on the decline in the stock market five hours later as evidence that his bailout was needed for the economy. President Bush must surely understand, as all economists know, that the daily swings in the stock market are driven by mass psychology and have almost nothing to do with the underlying strength in the economy."

Ya Get the Government Ya Want

For more on the consequences of evading reality, see this article from the Washington Post, He Told Us to Go Shopping. Now the Bill Is Due.

Another Great Palin Parody

Saturday Night Live did it again with a parody of the Biden-Palin debate. SNL "poked fun at Palin’s performance during Thursday night’s debate and took aim at Joe Biden as well. They even parodied the moderator of the debate, Gwen Ifill." Watch it here. It was hilarious. Don't you agree?

The scary part was that the real Sarah Palin makes almost as little sense as the SNL version.

Ask the Parrot

Polly the parrot is back! After near-perfect predictions for the 2004 election, Polly is ready to predict this year's U.S. Presidential Election. What does Polly say? "Polly’s latest forecast has McCain taking 230 Electoral College Votes, against Obama’s 308. This is the biggest spread between the two candidates since the first of September, when Polly inaugurated the PollyElectoral Vote."

Palin is a Terrorist

A terrorist uses fear to achieve an ideological goal, often a political objective. In the next month, listen closely as the Republi-cons try to use fear to win the election. The Republi-cons are great at exploiting fear to win elections, but as the last eight years have shown, fear is not a great governing philosophy.

And if McCain wants to talk about pals, he should explain his association with OBL's financial terrorist in Washington, and McCain's former economic adviser, former Texas senator Phil Gramm. See Washington Post, A Pal Around McCain.

"Gramm was always Wall Street's man in the Senate. As chairman of the Senate Banking Committee during the Clinton administration, he consistently underfunded the Securities and Exchange Commission and kept it from stopping accounting firms from auditing corporations with which they had conflicts of interest. Gramm's piece de resistance came on Dec. 15, 2000, when he slipped into an omnibus spending bill a provision called the Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA), which prohibited any governmental regulation of credit default swaps, those insurance policies covering losses on securities in the event they went belly up. As the housing bubble ballooned, the face value of those swaps rose to a tidy $62 trillion. And as the housing bubble burst, those swaps became a massive pile of worthless paper, because no government agency had required the banks to set aside money to back them up.

The CFMA also prohibited government regulation of the energy-trading market, which enabled Enron to nearly bankrupt the state of California before bankrupting itself.

The problem with this exercise, of course, is that Gramm's relationship to McCain is not comparable to the relationships that Ayers or Wright have with Obama. The idea that either Ayers or Wright would have any impact on the workings of an Obama administration is nonsensical. But Gramm and McCain do have an enduring political and economic alliance. McCain chaired Gramm's short-lived presidential campaign in 1996; Gramm is co-chair of McCain's current effort. McCain has not repudiated reports that Gramm is on the shortlist to become Treasury secretary if McCain is elected, even after Gramm labeled America "a nation of whiners."

If we are to believe his managers, McCain will charge into tomorrow night's debate seeking to "change the subject" from the economy to Obama's dangerous liaisons. It's not, however, likely to be a winning tactic. Obama will argue that in a time of deepening economic crisis, the public deserves a debate in which the candidates focus on their ideas for recovery rather than tendentious attacks on their rival's presumed associates. If pressed, though, he can mention that it is McCain's senior economic adviser who has diminished American solvency and power beyond the wildest dreams of anti-American terrorists."

Gramm should be given credit for destroying the American economy.

Why Competitive Endeavors Must Be Well Regulated

"The forces that produced the current crisis actually reflect a powerful dynamic that afflicts all kinds of competitive endeavors. This may be seen clearly in the world of sports." Read more.

McCain has No Honor, Part II

McCain only hope, and current strategy, is the Us. vs. Them strategy -- raise doubts about Obama's patriotism and attempt to persuade independent voters that Obama is a threat to the country. In part, this strategy will try to build on doubts some have because of Obama's race.

But because of the current economic crisis McCain will likely lose the election (mostly because he is a Republi-con), and in the end McCain will lose his honor.

The End of the American Era

I've often said that we are witnessing the zenith of American military and economic power. The following article explains: Washington Post, 9/11 Was Big. This Is Bigger. It begins:

"Two September shocks will define the presidency of George W. Bush. Stunningly enough, it already seems clear that the second -- the financial crisis that has only begun to unfold -- may well have far greater and more lasting ramifications than the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

That's because while 9/11 changed the way we view the world, the current financial crisis has changed the way the world views us. And it will also change, in some very fundamental ways, the way the world works.

Of course, the Sept. 11 attacks left a deep scar on the soul of the country and caused immense tragedy. Beyond human losses, they also revealed that being the sole superpower did not make us safe. But the attacks themselves were not, in a real sense, as significant a turning point in world history as they may have seemed at the time. (Remember, it was actually Bush's father who had first been put in charge of an American "war on terror" during the 1980s when he was Ronald Reagan's vice president.)

The current economic debacle is far more likely to be seen by historians as a true global watershed: the end of one period and the beginning of another."

Only a Heart Beat Away

Remember, Sarah Palin will be only a heart beat away from being the president. Is she ready? These ladies don't think so:

• Washington Post, Sarah Palin's Bridge to Somewhere by Kathleen Parker (She was often too cute by half -- winking and gosh-darning her way through the debate -- but she did what she needed to do. . . Over and over, Palin skipped past Ifill, as well as Biden, to speak directly to the American people. I am one of you, she told them. And these people -- Democrats and the media -- are neither of us, nor for us. And she said it in the nicest, gosh-darn way, bless her little heart. The GOP loved it, but did anyone else? Did Palin change hearts and minds? Probably not. . . With the very first question about the bailout bill -- was this the worst of Washington or the best of Washington? -- Palin went straight to her hockey mom narrative, though she switched to the more mainstream soccer field. "As we try to figure out has this been a good time or a bad time in America's economy, is go to a kid's soccer game on Saturday, and turn to any parent there on the sideline and ask them, 'How are you feeling about the economy?' And I'll betcha you're going to hear some fear in that parent's voice." . . Palin's strategy throughout the evening was to avoid questions to which she didn't have answers and rely on the American people to like her so much they didn't care. "I may not answer the questions that either the moderator or you want to hear, but I'm going to talk straight to the American people and let them know my track record also," she said when asked to respond to a Biden comment about deregulation. . . Before we relax into giddiness or cynicism, however, it's important to consider that a debate differs from an interview in significant ways. A debate is a point-counterpoint exercise that allows little opportunity for probing or follow-up. An interview requires that a candidate explain an idea in depth and offer specifics. The Katie Couric interview that was such a disaster for Palin -- and that prompted me to conclude that she was out of her league and should leave the ticket -- was awful precisely because Palin couldn't explain anything. For whatever reason, she couldn't even speak coherently. The debate format clearly worked better for her because she could control her message and keep pounding well-rehearsed talking points. Does that mean she's ready to lead the free world should circumstances warrant? That question remains.)
• New York Times, Talking in Points by Gail Collins (Palin did indeed answer each question with poise and self-confidence, reeling off a bunch of talking points that were sometimes totally unrelated to the matter at hand. When she was asked to respond to Joe Biden’s critique of the McCain health care plan, she announced: “I would like to respond about the tax increases,” cheerfully ignoring the fact that tax increases had never been mentioned. After the recent Katie Couric unpleasantness, Palin told the viewers that this time they were getting a chance to hear her “answer these tough questions without the filter.” And, indeed, her answers were murky in the extreme. She railed repeatedly about government regulations getting in the way of the private sector, then announced that the financial rescue plan “has got to include that massive oversight that Americans are expecting and deserving.” She said that she didn’t want to discuss what caused global warming, only how to ease its impact. . . When the moderator, Gwen Ifill, asked under what circumstances the candidates would consider bringing America’s nuclear weapons into play, Palin said: “Nuclear weaponry, of course, would be the be-all, end-all of just too many people in too many parts of our planet, so those dangerous regimes, again, cannot be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons, period.” . . Since [her nomination], she has spent most of her time going from one Republican rally to the next, repeating chunks of her convention speech, which have grown more disjointed with every stop. (In an airplane hangar in Ohio recently, she told the people of Youngstown she was happy to be there because Alaska has, per capita, the nation’s most “small planes and small pilots.”) For reporters hoping to question her, she has been determinedly unfindable, a Judge Crater from Juneau. And after the Couric debacle, you can bet your boots that the campaign is going to take Palin’s debate performance, declare victory and wrap her up until after the election. . . The people boosting Palin’s triumph were not celebrating because she demonstrated that she is qualified to be president if something ever happened to John McCain. They were cheering her success in covering up her lack of knowledge about the things she would have to deal with if she wound up running the country. )
  

How Low Can He Go, Part II

From Dan Froomkin's White House Watch at the Washington Post on Thursday:

The newest CBS News poll finds: "President Bush's overall job approval rating has dropped five points from last week and is now the lowest of his presidency. Only 22% of Americans approve of the job he's doing -- a new low -- while 70% of Americans disapprove -- a new high. President Bush's job approval rating has dropped 68 points from his all time high of 90% back in October, 2001. . . .

"Just 18% of Americans approve of the way President Bush is handling the economy, while 77% of Americans disapprove. Even a majority of Republicans disapprove of the President's handling of this issue."

Massimo Calabresi reports that in the latest Time poll, Bush's "approval rating is 23%, the lowest number ever found by Abt/SRBI, the company that conducted the poll for Time; 73% of respondents disapprove of his performance as President. Only 26% approve of his handling of the current financial crisis."

Gee, those numbers make the 26 percent approval rating in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll that I wrote about yesterday look pretty good.

Don't Blame FDR and Carter for the Finanacial Mess and Bailout

Contrary to what the Republi-cons would have you believe, the financial mess isn't the result of the FDR's New Deal, Carter, or simply because of subprime loans.

First, understand the recent legislative and regulatory changes, which were summarized in this New York Times article, Don’t Blame the New Deal:

"But the failures that have landed us in the mess we are in today are not mainly structural. To assert that they are masks deeper failings and sets false terms for the upcoming debate on regulatory reform.

Under a law passed in 1994, for example, the Federal Reserve was obligated to regulate banks and nonbank lenders to curb unfair, deceptive and predatory lending. Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, ignored his responsibility, even as junk mortgage lending proliferated in plain sight.

Mr. Greenspan later said the law defined “unfair” and “deceptive” too vaguely. If so, he should have asked Congress for clarification. Instead, he did nothing — and the Republican-led Congress did not question him. When Ben Bernanke took over as Fed chairman in early 2006, the negligence continued. It was not until mid-2007, after the housing bubble had begun to burst, that federal regulators offered guidelines for subprime lending.

The systematic dismantling of laws that called for regulation also contributed to the current crisis.

In 1995, Congress passed a law that restricted the ability of investors to sue companies, securities firms and accounting firms for misstatements and pie-in-the-sky projections. That helped inflate the dot-com bubble and contributed to the Enron debacle. It also engendered a sense of impunity that helped to foster the excessive risk-taking so prevalent in the mortgage mess.

Then, in 1999, Congress dismantled the Glass- Steagall Act, a pillar of the New Deal, which separated commercial and investment banking. That enormous change was undertaken with no thought or effort — or desire — to regulate the world that it would help to create. Now we know that an entire “shadow banking system” has grown up, without rules or transparency, but with the ability to topple the financial system itself.

But perhaps no deregulatory effort had more catastrophic effect than the 2000 law that explicitly excluded derivatives, including those credit default swaps, from regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936.

And there is probably no greater missed opportunity than the reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac passed by the House in 2005. If the law had been enacted, the takeover of those companies may have been avoided. It failed in large part because President Bush wanted to fully privatize them and feared that if they were adequately reformed, privatization would lose steam.

Indeed, it was in the Bush years that antiregulation and deregulation found full expression, fueled by an ideology that markets know best, government hampers markets, and problems will magically fix themselves."

Then there was the development and enormous recent growth of CDOs (colateralized debt obligations) and CDSs (credit default swaps). A rule change made by the the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2004 under a Republi-con President and Congress is the primarily reason these new financial instrument spun out of control. See:

• New York Time, Agency’s ’04 Rule Let Banks Pile Up New Debt, and Risk

You can listen to the associated audio Back Story with The Times's Stephen Labaton, which includes excerpts from the SEC meeting in April 2004, or even an audio recording of the whole meeting, and hear meeting participants laughing about the risk.

These changes were made based on a faulty assumption, that the financial institutions and regulators understood and properly evaluated the risk(s) involved. As we now know, that was not true. See:

• Washington Post, A Mountain, Overlooked, How Risk Models Failed Wall St. and Washington
  

Deliberately ignorant assumptions and stupid decisions to reach a desired conclusion and objective, does that remind you of anything? Can you say Iraq?

But of course, the Rebubli-cons never had much concern for objective reality. So something must be done. See:

• Washington Post, Thanks to the Wing Nuts

All Hail The Great Palin

Thank goodness for the soft bigotry of low expectations. See:

• Washington Post, Palin Takes On A New Foe: Her Image by Tom Shales (my favorite so far)
• Washington Post, Joe, and Sarah Six-Pack by Dana Milbank (next favorite)
• Washington Post, The VP Debate: Palin's Big Mistake by Eugene Robinson (pithy)
• Washington Post, The VP Debate: She Won Fersure, Also by Kathleen Parker (She's the heretic. Her conclusion: "And the question remains: Is she ready to be president should the need arise?")
• Washington Post, The VP Debate: A Victory -- of Sorts by Michael Gerson (Favorite line: "It was strange to hear the possibility of a nuclear war described as "the be all, end all of just too many people.")
• Washington Post, The VP Debate: Sarah the Speedy by Harold Meyerson
• Washington Post, Hockey Mom on Thin Ice By E. J. Dionne Jr. (Good conclusion: "As for McCain, he found himself in a political hole and threw the dice with Palin. At the time of her selection, voters were often compared with "American Idol" watchers who put personality and stage presence above everything else. But it turns out that Americans take the presidency very seriously. And surviving 90 minutes on a stage with Biden did not transform Palin into a plausible president.")
• Washington Post, Hail Mary vs. Cool Barry by Charles Krauthammer (Almost an endorsement: "Once Ronald Reagan convinced America that he was not menacing, he won in a landslide. If Obama convinces the electorate that he is not too exotic or green or unprepared, he wins as well. . . he's got both a first-class intellect and a first-class temperament. That will likely be enough to make him president.")
  

Could The Great Palin Become President

What are the statistical chances that The Great Palin could become president if John McCain is elected? Read about it:

• MSNBC, 1 in 4 chance McCain may not survive 2nd term
• Politico, McCain and the politics of mortality
• Askville by Amazon, "Given his age and using actuarial data, how likely is it that John McCain would die in office, or even pre-election?"
• PR-insider.com, Death Odds Haunt McCain's VP Pick // High Chance She Will Become President From His Death or Disability
  

Game Time for The Great Palin, NoBullBert Will Discuss Tomorrow

Tonight is the big night. The Great Palin will show the Doubters.

In the meantime, on a more serious note, read this biographical article in the Washington Post, Palin's Strengths Rooted in Alaska. Sort of reminds we of my wife who grew up on a dairy farm in norther central Wisconsin.

In the spirit of fairness, there is an equally interesting biographical article about Michelle Obama, A Family Tree Rooted In American Soil.

And tune in tomorrow from 4:05 to 6 p.m. on 1330 AM WEBY (or listen on line courtesy of a sponsor and co-host Ken Lamb, the link is on the upper left side) to discuss and analyze the debate and the financial mess.

Good Government Regulation is Not Bad

Read this good article about capital markets. One quote: "complex systems are not confined to historical experience. Events of any size are possible, and limited only by the scale of the system itself. Since we have scaled the system to unprecedented size, we should expect catastrophes of unprecedented size as well. We're in the middle of one such catastrophe, and complexity theory says it will get much worse."

The bottom line, capital markets are complex dynamic systems that need to be well regulated so that they do not become unstable. But of course Republi-cons don't understand that.

We get the government we want.

Is The Great Palin the Next W

To whom should we compare The Great Palin, Jesus, Gandi, Reagan, or maybe even our current great president, George W. Bush. Like Palin, the snobbish elite never liked W. But the similarities are striking, they read the same newspapers and magazines and even have similar oratorical disabilities.

Praise be, could The Great Palin be the next W.

Who is to Blame for the Financial Mess

Great article by George Will regarding who is to blame for the current financial mess:

• Washington Post articleA Vote Against Rashness
  A Vote Against Rashness

Bottom line, We the People are to blame, we act irresponsibly and want a government that does the same.

If you want to learn more about this fine mess we are in, and you have the time, you might listen to this episode of NPR's This American Life, The Giant Pool of Money. Here is a related article from the New York Times, Daring to Say Loans Made No Sense.

But as for what we might do now, instead of a triclkle-down bailout as currently proposed, why not consider The Trickle-Up Bailout.

Just a thought or two before tomorrow's great debate.

The Heretic Blames the True Believers

Kathleen Parker, the heretic who wrote the article in the National Review asking The Great Palin to bow out of the election, confesses that she is a traitor and an idiot, that her mother should have aborted her and left her in a dumpster, but since she didn't, Parker should "off" herself. But then she blames us, the true believers. Read the story.

I'm so confused.

Maybe I should visit the Sarah Palin Quote Generator and see what The Great Palin says.

The truth is revealed, The Great Palin said to me, directly:

"The way that I have understood the world is working with existing allies to get caught up in this evil, in this terror."

All Hail The Great Palin!

Who Cares if She Can't Read, She Sees, She Knows

Now the evil media attacks The Great Palin because she does not read their drivel:

Couric "When it comes to establishing your world view, I was curious, what newspapers and magazines did you regularly read before you were tapped for this to stay informed and to understand the world?"

Palin: "I've read most of them, again with a great appreciation for the press, for the media."

Couric: "What, specifically?"

Palin: "Um, all of them, any of them that have been in front of me all these years."

Couric: "Can you name a few?"

Palin: "I have a vast variety of sources where we get our news, too. Alaska isn't a foreign country, where it's kind of suggested, 'wow, how could you keep in touch with what the rest of Washington, D.C., may be thinking when you live up there in Alaska?' Believe me, Alaska is like a microcosm of America."

The Great Palin does not need to read to be informed of national and world events. Remember, The Great Palin can see Russia. She sees and she knows. Sort of like Santa Claus. In fact, Alaska is the closest state to the North Pole, and she is a hottie. Maybe she is Mrs. Claus, or even the first female Santa Claus. But I digress.

Just have faith, The Great Palin can see, and an Thursday you will see also.

All Hail The Great Palin!

Hear From The Great Palin Anytime

Can't get enough of the wisdom of The Great Palin, the messiah, zealous leader, and savior, that John McCain and this country need in these frightful times. Then visit the Sarah Palin Quotes Generator 24/7, and hear insightful comment and analysis almost as inspirational as the real thing.

All Hail The Great Palin!

Many Doubt The Great Palin

A pox on ye of little faith. Some say The Great Palin has simply never given much thought to many important national and international issues. They say that she spits out tired cliches, random jargon, and catchphrases she has been coached to repeat, often resulting in nonsensical answers, gibberish really. And who are the doubters, see the bad reviews and commentary about The Great Palin’s readiness to be vice president and perhaps even president:

• Washington Post, Impulse, Meet Experience by George F. Will
• Washington Post, Palin's Problem by Charles Krauthammer
• New York Times, Why Experience Matters by David Brooks
  
• National Review, Palin Problem by Kathleen Parker
  
• Washington Post, Palin Is Ready? Please. by Fareed Zakaria
• New York Times, Palin’s Words Raise Red Flags by Bob Herbert
  
• New York Times, The Caucus: Curbing Their Enthusiasm by Kate Phillips
• New York Times, The Caucus: Palin’s Perils by Kate Phillips
• CNN, McCain's VP decision is 'fundamentally irresponsible'
  
• New York Times, Concerns About Palin’s Readiness as a Big Test Nears by Adam Nagourney
• Washington Post, Palin's (Conservative) Problem by Chris Cillizza
• Time, Sarah Palin's Foreign Policy Follies by Romesh Ratnesar

And let us not forget the heretics at Saturday Night Live, mocking The Great Palin, not once, but twice.

They are all Unbelievers. I say The Great Palin is divinely inspired. Her likeness should be carved into Mount Rushmore today, why wait. I know she has the answer to the great crisis(es) now facing this country.

On Thursday, The Great Palin will rise from the stage and smite the unbelievers and doubters. Then she will save us all with her wisdom.

All hail The Great Palin!

The Great Palin Speaks Again, This Time About the Economy

McCain will not share The Great Palin with us all. CNN anchor Campbell Brown has accused the McCain camp of treating Palin like "a delicate flower" for refusing to allow Palin to hold press conferences or field questions from reporters. Nevertheless, The Great Palin has honored us with her insight into the financial crisis. Here is the exchange between The Great Palin and CBS anchor Katie Couric:

COURIC: Why isn't it better, Governor Palin, to spend $700 billion helping middle-class families who are struggling with health care, housing, gas and groceries; allow them to spend more and put more money into the economy instead of helping these big financial institutions that played a role in creating this mess?

PALIN: That's why I say I, like every American I'm speaking with, were ill about this position that we have been put in where it is the taxpayers looking to bail out. But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health-care reform that is needed to help shore up our economy, helping the--it's got to be all about job creation, too, shoring up our economy and putting it back on the right track. So health-care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americans. And trade, we've got to see trade as opportunity, not as a competitive, scary thing. But one in five jobs being created in the trade sector today, we've got to look at that as more opportunity. All those things under the umbrella of job creation. This bailout is a part of that.

Some might call this "nonsense--a vapid emptying out of every catchphrase about economics that came into her head. . . the more Palin talks, the more we see that it may not be sexism but common sense that's causing the McCain campaign to treat her like a time bomb."

Not I, I eagerly await the next great pronouncement of The Great Palin.

How about you?

The Bailout is a Bad Idea, Part V

The following article explains that the financial crisis was not caused by subprime mortgages, but by the enormous liability that insurance companies and financial institutions have for credit default swaps.

• New York Times article
  Behind Insurer’s Crisis, Blind Eye to a Web of Risk
  An exploration of A.I.G.’s demise offers insights into the virally connected financial world that is now imploding.

It also appears that Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. is trying to bailout his former firm Goldman Sachs. From the article:

"Although it was not widely known, Goldman, a Wall Street stalwart that had seemed immune to its rivals’ woes, was A.I.G.’s largest trading partner, according to six people close to the insurer who requested anonymity because of confidentiality agreements. A collapse of the insurer threatened to leave a hole of as much as $20 billion in Goldman’s side, several of these people said.

Days later, federal officials, who had let Lehman die and initially balked at tossing a lifeline to A.I.G., ended up bailing out the insurer for $85 billion."

Can you say conflict of interest.

Don't forget that in the first draft Paulson demanded that Congress forbid judicial review of his decisions on use of the money in the bailout. Not only would his decisions be beyond review but so would the actions of his pals in the banking world.

Paulson should be removed from office. And there should be no bailout until he is removed.

The Great Palin Makes Former Beauty Queens Proud

The National Review was founded by the late author William F. Buckley, Jr. and describes itself as "America's most widely read and influential magazine and web site for Republican/conservative news, commentary, and opinion." It is usually considered the center of intellectual activity for the American Conservative movement in the twentieth century. But on Friday,Kathleen Parker, a nationally syndicated conservative columnist, suggested that The Great Palin quit. How dare she!! Parker wrote in her op-ed found at the National Review:

"As we've seen and heard more from John McCain's running mate, it is increasingly clear that Palin is a problem. Quick study or not, she doesn't know enough about economics and foreign policy to make Americans comfortable with a President Palin should conditions require her promotion. . .

Palin didn’t make a mess cracking the glass ceiling. She simply glided through it.

It was fun while it lasted.

Palin’s recent interviews with Charles Gibson, Sean Hannity, and now Katie Couric have all revealed an attractive, earnest, confident candidate. Who Is Clearly Out Of Her League.

No one hates saying that more than I do. Like so many women, I’ve been pulling for Palin, wishing her the best, hoping she will perform brilliantly. I’ve also noticed that I watch her interviews with the held breath of an anxious parent, my finger poised over the mute button in case it gets too painful. Unfortunately, it often does. My cringe reflex is exhausted.

Palin filibusters. She repeats words, filling space with deadwood. Cut the verbiage and there’s not much content there. Here’s but one example of many from her interview with Hannity: “Well, there is a danger in allowing some obsessive partisanship to get into the issue that we’re talking about today. And that’s something that John McCain, too, his track record, proving that he can work both sides of the aisle, he can surpass the partisanship that must be surpassed to deal with an issue like this.”

When Couric pointed to polls showing that the financial crisis had boosted Obama’s numbers, Palin blustered wordily: “I’m not looking at poll numbers. What I think Americans at the end of the day are going to be able to go back and look at track records and see who’s more apt to be talking about solutions and wishing for and hoping for solutions for some opportunity to change, and who’s actually done it?”

If BS were currency, Palin could bail out Wall Street herself.

If Palin were a man, we’d all be guffawing, just as we do every time Joe Biden tickles the back of his throat with his toes. But because she’s a woman — and the first ever on a Republican presidential ticket — we are reluctant to say what is painfully true.

What to do?

McCain can’t repudiate his choice for running mate. He not only risks the wrath of the GOP’s unforgiving base, but he invites others to second-guess his executive decision-making ability. Barack Obama faces the same problem with Biden.

Only Palin can save McCain, her party, and the country she loves. She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first.

Do it for your country. "

This column is conservative heresy. (NOTE: Heresy means dissent or deviation from a dominant theory, opinion, or practice, an opinion, doctrine, or practice contrary to the truth or to generally accepted beliefs or standards.)

I know you agree with me that The Great Palin is making former beauty queens everywhere very proud!

Dopey Endorses McCain-Palin

Snow White & The Seven Dwarfs

The seven dwarfs always left to go work in the mine early each morning. As always, Snow White stayed home doing her domestic chores.

As lunchtime approached, she would prepare their lunch and carry it to the mine.

One day as she arrived at the mine with the lunch, she saw that there had been a terrible cave-in. Tearfully, and fearing the worst, Snow White began calling out, hoping against hope that the dwarfs had somehow survived.

"Hello!...Hello!" she shouted. "Can anyone hear me? Hello!"

For a long while, there was no answer.

Losing hope, Snow White again shouted, "Hello! Is anyone down there?"

Just as she was about to give up all hope, she heard a faint voice from deep within the mine, singing . . .

"Vote for McCain/Palin!! - Vote for McCain/Palin!!"

Snow White fell to her knees, crossed herself and prayed, "Oh, thank you, God! At least Dopey is still alive!"