It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Gets a Job

UPDATE XI: "Instead of addressing the dismal unemployment picture during Wednesday’s press conference, Ben Bernanke bent to the inflationistas." Read The New York Times, The Intimidated Fed, which notes:

"Lately the inflationistas have seized on rising oil prices as evidence in their favor, even though — as Mr. Bernanke himself pointed out — these prices have nothing to do with Fed policy. The way oil prices are coloring the discussion led the economist Tim Duy to suggest, sarcastically, that basic Fed policy is now to do nothing about unemployment 'because some people in the Middle East are seeking democracy.'

But I’d put it differently. I’d say that the Fed’s policy is to do nothing about unemployment because Ron Paul is now the chairman of the House subcommittee on monetary policy."

UPDATE X: Another told ya so (originally posted in April 2009). "While data zealots have declared the end of the Great Recession, its pain is still very real for millions of Americans." Read The New York Times, We Haven’t Hit Bottom Yet.


UPDATE IX: In the future, will this time be known as 'The Great Unemployment?' Read The Atlantic, How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America.


UPDATE VIII: "Those in the lower-income groups are in a much, much deeper hole than the general commentary on the recession would lead people to believe." Read The New York Times, The Worst of the Pain.


UPDATE VII: From the Washington Post, Digging out of a deep hole:



And who dug the hole, Bush or Obama?


UPDATE VI: The unemployment rate jumped to 10.2 percent in October, the highest since 1983. Read The New York Times, U.S. Unemployment Rate Hits 10.2%, Highest in 26 Years.

But "the truer measure of unemployment -- a total count of everyone who should be working full time but is not -- hit 17.5 percent in October, the highest level in modern times."


UPDATE V: From The New York Times, Comparing This Recession to Previous Ones: Job Losses;



But thank God we saved Government Sachs.


UPDATE IV: Pity the non-government worker, unemployment is still bad, bad, bad. Read The New York Times, A Scary Reality.


UPDATE III: If Obama don't watch out, the unemployed fat lady might crush his presidency. Read the Washington Post, Shaky Economy May Dislodge Obama's Footing.


UPDATE II: How come the fat lady still ain't got a job? Cause there ain't none to be had, unemployment rose last month to 9.5%, and that number is probably an understatement. Read the Washington Post, Job Losses Dampen Hopes for Recovery.

Obama shouldn't have given all the money to the robber banks.


UPDATE: The fat lady still ain't got a job, and her prospects ain't good. Read The New York Times, G.M.’s Latest Plan Envisions a Much Smaller Automaker and Workers Walk the Plank. The later article notes that "[w]hile Wall Street is breaking out the Champagne, the rest of the economy is beyond terrible, and will be for the foreseeable future."

You can thank those Republi-cons and their war on the middle class.

Are happy days here again? Is the economic mess behind us?

There is an old saying, it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings, which means that one shouldn't assume the outcome of some event until it has actually finished.

(FYI: The phrase refers to the final scene of German composer Richard Wagner's opera Der Ring des Nibelungen, aka the Ring cycle, a full performance of which could take place over four nights with a total playing time of 15 hours, in which a heavy-set woman dressed like a valkyrie (Brünnhilde) rides into the funeral pyre of her lover (Siegfried), while singing of course because it is an opera, as the the set collapses and the entire cycle ends up in the Rhine river, where it started.)

Read The New York Times, As Stocks Surge, Fears Linger About the Economy.

After the looting and robbery of the treasury of trillions of dollars, the government has succeeded in propping up the stock market. But the stock market decline wasn't the problem, it was just a symptom.

The real event was an economic downturn, which was caused by massive fraud on Wall Street that was facilitated by deregulation and lack of government oversight, all part of a larger Republi-con decades-long war on the middle class, but that is a subject for another post.

Bottomline, the trillions were a mere band aid to hide the gaping wounds of the economic downturn. And my bet is, it ain't over.

Republi-CON Polly Wants a Tax Cut

UPDATE III: Why can't the fat lady get a job? Globalization. Read The New York Times, Is There Hope for the Unemployed?, which compares employment growth in "those sectors whose output is traded across international borders (the tradable sectors) and is thus subject to competition from foreign producers, and those sectors whose output is not traded across international borders (the nontradable sectors)."


UPDATE II: "Our failure to create jobs is a choice rationalized by an ever-shifting set of excuses." Read The New York Times, No, We Can’t? Or Won’t?, which notes:

"The economy isn’t fixing itself. Nor are there real obstacles to government action: both the bond vigilantes and structural unemployment exist only in the imaginations of pundits. And if stimulus seems to have failed, it’s because it was never actually tried."

UPDATE: "The nation’s economic woes boil down to this. Compared with a healthy economy, about 7 million working-age people and 5 percent of the nation’s industrial capacity are sitting idle, not producing what they could. The economy is growing again, but at a rate — less than 2 percent in recent months — that’s too slow to keep up with a population that keeps increasing and workers who keep getting more efficient." Read the Washington Post, Why it doesn't feel like a recovery, which includes a great interactive graph showing the the output gap.

Ask any Republi-con politician for his/her solution for the economic downturn and inevitably s/he will parrot the Republi-con economic elixir: tax cuts, tax cuts. But supply-side economics isn't the answer this time, the system is awash in cheap money. Read The New York Times, Cheap Debt for Corporations Fails to Spur Economy.

As I said in February 2009, tax cuts are not the answer, this downturn won't be over 'til the fat lady gets a job.

Fat Lady Still Seeks Job (And Republi-CONs Couldn't Care Less)

UPDATE III:  The "president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, was once a leading opponent of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to stimulate the economy" finally admits that those invisible Republi-CON bond vigilantes were just his wild imagination, but "that persistent unemployment has created 'a time of testing' for the Fed comparable to the rise of inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s."

So much for the Republi-con myth of expansionary austerity.

Read the New York Times, A Fed Policy Maker, Changing His Mind, Urges More Stimulus.

UPDATE II:  "[T]he labor market has experienced neither terrific gains nor terrific crashes in the last three years. Instead, we've suffered the Curse of Goldilocks: Just fine enough to keep pressure from building in Washington for another round of intervention. . .

It makes you wonder: What kind of recovery might we have today if Washington weren't so enthusiastically trying to kill it?"

Read The Atlantic, The Goldilocks Curse: How America's Job Creation Story Got So Boring.

The link is to The Atlantic, The Greatest Risk to the U.S. Economy Is Still the People in Charge of It, which notes that "[t[he recession gave us a lost decade. Congress added a lost year. The budget wars since 2010 have cost us 12 months in job creation." 

UPDATE:  "[I]nfluential people need to stop using the future as an excuse for inaction. The clear and present danger is mass unemployment, and we should deal with it, now."

Read The New York Times, Fight the Future.  

As I said in February 2009, tax cuts are not the answer, and again in October 2010, this downturn won't be over 'til the fat lady gets a job.  And in June 2011 and Jan-Feb 2012, as well as other times -- it's jobs stupid.

But since Obama first won election, Republi-cons have been using best efforts to tank the economy and keep unemployment high.

So "just a reminder that the U.S. labor market is still in rough shape — despite the considerable improvement in recent years."  Read the Washington Post, The U.S. job market is still worse than at any point during the last downturn.

The article includes this graph:

Good News for the Economy, Bad News for Republi-CONs

UPDATE III: Of course, Obamney claims that Obama made the economy worse. But even reporters are realizing that the Republi-con "level of dishonesty is almost disarming to reporters and news orgs; it’s so brazen and ubiquitous that it’s hard to know how to attack it. " Read the Washington Post, Probing the depths of Romney’s dishonesty and Faced with good news about economy, Romney dissolves into incoherence.

Republi-cons will have to "pick up their game" and tank the economy soon, or TGWLTTGWLLT (The Guy Who Lost To The Guy Who Lost Last Time) (<-- NoBullU.com copyright claim) will lose the election this time.


UPDATE II: And bad news for Republi-cons. Read the Washington Post, U.S. adds 243K jobs in January; unemployment rate drops to 8.3%, which includes this graph:



Some argue the news has been even better, "[b]ecause for the past year, the initial jobs reports have consistently been way too pessimistic. Read the Washington Post, Earlier reports prove too pessimistic, which noted that "[i]f you paid attention only to the initial monthly estimates, the economy added just 1.38 million jobs last year. But if you paid attention to the final revisions, the economy actually added 1.82 million jobs last year — twice as much as 2010, and a difference of 440,000 jobs."


UPDATE: More bad news for Republi-cons.

"The nation’s on-and-off economic recovery has picked up its pace again, the Commerce Department reported Friday, with the U.S. economy growing at an annualized rate of 2.8 percent for the end of 2011.

That rate is the fastest recorded in a year and a half, and follows three quarters of growth below 2 percent."

Read the Washington Post, U.S. economy in fourth quarter 2011 grew at fastest pace in 1.5 years.

As I said in February 2009, tax cuts are not the answer, and again in October 2010, this downturn won't be over 'til the fat lady gets a job.

But despite the best efforts of the Republi-cons to tank the economy, "[t]he December jobs report is good news. Very good news. Payrolls increased by 200,000 -- and the growth was spread relatively evenly across the economy. Retail added 28,000 jobs. Manufacturing added 23,000 jobs. Transportation and warehousing added 50,000 jobs -- 43,000 of them in the 'couriers and messenging' subcategory, which suggests some of those gains are temporary holiday hires. Health care added 23,000 jobs. Food services added 24,000. Mining added 7,000 jobs. The only payrolls that shrunk in December were government payrolls: we lost another 12,000 public-sector jobs."

Read the Washington Post, A good jobs report — and a good year, which includes this graph for the year:



Expect a lot of panic and denial today from Republi-cons, because it is lookin like it will be Obama in 2012.

Hello Globalization, Goodbye Jobs

"From 1951 through 2007, there were never more than three unemployed workers for each job opening, and it was rare for that figure even to hit two-to-one. In contrast, there have been more than three jobseekers per opening in every single month since September 2008. The ratio peaked somewhere between five-to-one and seven-to-one in mid-2009. It has since declined but we have far to go before we return to “normal” levels.

The bleak outlook for jobseekers has three immediate sources. The sharp deterioration beginning in early 2007 is the most dramatic feature of the above chart (the rise in job scarcity after point C in the chart, the steepness of which depends on the data source used). But two less obvious factors predated the recession. The first is the steepness of the rise in job scarcity during the previous recession in 2001 (from point A to point B), which rivaled that during the deep downturn of the early 1980s. The second is the failure between 2003 and 2007 of jobs per jobseeker to recover from the 2001 recession (the failure of point C to fall back to point A)."

Read Brookings, A Decade of Slack Labor Markets, which includes these graphs:





And why the anemic job market? It's China, stupid.

The Republi-con's economic no recovery plan, as they lobby for more tax cuts: destroy jobs and pay workers less.

As I said in February 2009, tax cuts are not the answer, this downturn won't be over 'til the fat lady gets a job.

Still Unemployed, It's the Economy Stupid!

As I said in February 2009, tax cuts are not the answer, and again in October 2010, this downturn won't be over 'til the fat lady gets a job.

And "the primary cause of the increase in duration [of unemployment] is not extended unemployment benefits or changes in demographics, but weak aggregate demand." Read Calculated Risk, Weak labor demand explains increase in unemployment duration, which references the Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco Economic Letter, Why Is Unemployment Duration So Long?

Damn Middle Class Jobs, Republi-CON Polly Wants a Tax Cut

UPDATE: "Who benefits from economic stagnation?" Read The New York Times, Rule by Rentier, which notes that "[c]onsciously or not, policy makers are catering almost exclusively to the interests of . . . those who . . . lent large sums of money in the past, often unwisely, but are now being protected from loss at everyone else’s expense."

As I said in February 2009, tax cuts are not the answer, this downturn won't be over 'til the fat lady gets a job.

And today's jobs report and other recent dismal economic data shows the results of a pivot away from jobs to other concerns." Read The New York Times, The Mistake of 2010, which points out that:

"[T]he original 2009 Obama stimulus was enacted, some of us warned that it was both too small and too short-lived. In particular, the effects of the stimulus would start fading out in 2010 - and given the fact that financial crises are usually followed by prolonged slumps, it was unlikely that the economy would have a vigorous self-sustaining recovery under way by then.

By the beginning of 2010, it was already obvious that these concerns had been justified. Yet somehow an overwhelming consensus emerged among policy makers and pundits that nothing more should be done to create jobs, that, on the contrary, there should be a turn toward fiscal austerity.

This consensus was fed by scare stories about an imminent loss of market confidence in U.S. debt. Every uptick in interest rates was interpreted as a sign that the 'bond vigilantes' were on the attack, and this interpretation was often reported as a fact, not as a dubious hypothesis.

For example, in March 2010, The Wall Street Journal published an article titled 'Debt Fears Send Rates Up,' reporting that long-term U.S. interest rates had risen and asserting - without offering any evidence - that this rise, to about 3.9 percent, reflected concerns about the budget deficit. In reality, it probably reflected several months of decent jobs numbers, which temporarily raised optimism about recovery.

But never mind. Somehow it became conventional wisdom that the deficit, not unemployment, was Public Enemy No. 1 - a conventional wisdom both reflected in and reinforced by a dramatic shift in news coverage away from unemployment and toward deficit concerns. Job creation effectively dropped off the agenda.

So, here we are, in the middle of 2011. How are things going?"

More proof of the Republi-con double-dip recession.

Test for Old-Timers

A pop culture test for old-timers. The answers are at the end. Have fun, but no peeking!

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

1. What builds strong bodies 12 ways?

A. Flintstones vitamins
B. The Buttmaster
C. Spaghetti
D. Wonder Bread
E. Orange Juice
F. Milk
G. Cod Liver Oil

2. Before he was Muhammed Ali, he was...

A. Sugar Ray Robinson
B. Roy Orbison
C. Gene Autry
D. Rudolph Valentino
E. Fabian
F. Mickey Mantle
G. Cassius Clay

3. Pogo, the comic strip character said, 'We have met the enemy and...

A. It's you
B. He is us
C. It's the Grinch
D. He wasn't home
E. He's really me an
F. We quit
G. He surrendered

4. Good night David.

A. Good night Chet
B. Sleep well
C. Good night Irene
D. Good night Gracie
E. See you later alligator
F. Until tomorrow
G. Good night Steve

5. You'll wonder where the yellow went...

A. When you use Tide
B. When you lose your crayons
C. When you clean your tub
D. If you paint the room blue
E. If you buy a soft water tank
F. When you use Lady Clairol
G. When you brush your teeth with Pepsodent

6. Before he was the Skipper's Little Buddy, Bob Denver was Dobie's friend...

A. Stuart Whitman
B. Randolph Scott
C. Steve Reeves
D. Maynard G Krebbs
E. Corky B. Dork
F. Dave the Whale
G. Zippy Zoo

7. Liar, liar..

A. You're a liar
B. Your nose is growing
C. Pants on fire
D. Join the choir
E. Jump up higher
F. On the wire
G. I'm telling Mom

8. Meanwhile, back in Metropolis, Superman fights a never ending battle for truth, justice and...

A. Wheaties
B. Lois Lane
C. TV ratings
D. World peace
E. Red tights
F. The American way
G. News headlines

9. Hey kids! What time is it?

A. It's time for Yogi Bear
B. It's time to do your homework
C. It's Howdy Doody Time
D. It's Time for Romper Room
E. It's bedtime
F. The Mighty Mouse Hour
G. Scoopy Doo Time

10. Lions and tigers and bears...

A. Yikes
B. Oh no
C. Gee whiz
D. I'm scared
E. Oh my
F. Help! Help!
G. Let's run

11. Bob Dylan advised us never to trust anyone...

A. Over 40
B. Wearing a uniform
C. Carrying a briefcase
D. Over 30
E. You don't know
F. Who says, 'Trust me'
G. Who eats tofu

12. NFL quarterback who appeared in a television commercial wearing women's stockings...

A. Troy Aikman
B. Kenny Stabler
C. Joe Namath
D. Roger Stauback
E. Joe Montana
F. Steve Young
G. John Elway

13. Brylcream.

A. Smear it on
B. You'll smell great
C. Tame that cowlick
D. Grease ball heaven
E. It's a dream
F. We're your team
G. A little dab'll do ya

14. I found my thrill...

A. In Blueberry muffins
B. With my man, Bill
C. Down at the mill
D. Over the windowsill
E. With thyme and dill
F. Too late to enjoy
G. On Blueberry Hill

15.. Before Robin Williams, Peter Pan was played by...

A. Clark Gable
B. Mary Martin
C. Doris Day
D. Errol Flynn
E. Sally Fields
F. Jim Carey
G. Jay Leno

16. Name the Beatles....

A. John, Steve, George, Ringo
B. John, Paul, George, Roscoe
C. John, Paul, Stacey, Ringo
D. Jay, Paul, George, Ringo
E. Lewis, Peter, George, Ringo
F. Jason, Betty, Skipper, Hazel
G. John, Paul, George, Ringo

17. I wonder, wonder, who..

A. Who ate the leftovers?
B. Who did the laundry?
C. Was it you?
D. Who wrote the book of love?
E. Who I am?
F. Passed the test?
G. Knocked on the door?

18. I'm strong to the finish....

A. Cause I eats my broccoli
B. Cause I eats me spinach
C. Cause I lift weights
D. Cause I'm the hero
E. And don't you forget it
F. Cause Olive Oyl loves me
G. To outlast Bruto

19. When it's least expected, you're elected, you're the star today...

A. Smile, you're on Candid Camera
B. Smile, you're on Star Search
C Smile, you won the lottery
D. Smile, we're watching you
E. Smile, the world sees you
F. Smile, you're a hit
G. Smile, you're on TV

20. What do M&M's do?

A. Make your tummy happy
B. Melt in your mouth, not in your pocket
C. Make you fat
D. Melt your heart
E. Make you popular
F. Melt in your mouth, not in your hand
G Come in colors




____________________________________________________
Below are the right answers:


1. D - Wonder Bread
2. G - Cassius Clay
3. B - He Is Us
4. A - Good night, Chet
5. G - When you brush your teeth with Pepsodent
6. D - Maynard G. Krebbs
7. C - Pants On Fire
8. F - The American Way
9. C - It's Howdy Doody Time
10. E - Oh My
11. D - Over 30
12. C - Joe Namath
13. G - A little dab'll do ya
14. G - On Blueberry Hill
15. B - Mary Martin
16. G - John, Paul, George, Ringo
17. D - Who wrote the book of Love
18. B - Cause I eats me spinach
19. A - Smile, you're on Candid Camera
20. F - Melt In Your Mouth Not In Your Hand