Post Election Emotions

An interesting Press Release from Brandtrust, Inc.:

BEWARE THE GREAT ‘ELECTION DEPRESSION’ COMING NOVEMBER 5, 2008

Chicago—Oct. 29, 2008—Voters envision an apocalyptic America filled with chaos, corruption and despair if the candidate whom they oppose is elected on Nov. 4. A study conducted in September by Brandtrust, a strategic research firm specializing in methodology designed to uncover emotional and psychological insights, revealed that committed party voters become highly emotionally charged, and they begin to speak of their survival in a very tribal and primal manner when asked to visualize what life would be like with the opposing party in office.

In the study—which was designed to better understand the underlying emotional drivers of party loyalty—voters commented that, “It’s more like a war,” “As soon as the energy leaves, there is a feeling of doomsday,” and “If you don’t win, hopefully you will survive. Hopefully you will move forward and make the best of it and that’s all you can do.”

Regardless of the issues raised or political arguments presented, voters—both republicans and democrats—are looking to the comfort and protection of their own party. In fact, when the scenario of the opposing party in power is presented to them, the sense of comfort and protection afforded by their group is erased, and they are left with a dire view of America.

“When the election is over and the proverbial day-after depression sets in for those who lost, it’s not merely a case of sour grapes. There are real underlying emotional and psychological dynamics at work,” said Daryl Travis, CEO and founder of Brandtrust. “For many party loyalists, their greatest fear has come to pass, and life will remain in a precarious state of limbo for four years.”

What does this mean for voters, political campaigns and even marketing and PR executives? The research conducted by Brandtrust presents a side of voters that is often overlooked in communication platforms. Even voters with the greatest awareness of the issues are responding to deep, non-conscious mental models of themselves, their party and their candidate.

As Travis explains, “The ‘issues,’ in many cases, don’t help voters make their decisions; they help them rationalize the decision they’ve already made on an emotional level.” While shouting platform policies is a requirement for any election, the little things, like relating to and understanding the voter on a more psychological level, may really help win elections.

Helps explain the emotional reaction of some.

Analyze the Election

For those of you who like to analyze the election, here is a good start:

The New York Times, Exit Polls, where you can compare voter demographics back to 1980, and
The New York Times, How the Map Changed From 2004, where you can see how voting at the county level changing between the 2004 and 2008 elections.

If you have any other suggestions, let me know.

Only 6%?

Think about it, Obama had nearly every advantage -- including youth, charisma, money, an economic meltdown, gobs of money, Iraq-mire, dissatisfaction with the incumbent, a confused opponent (someone please tell me, what was McCain's campaign theme), and did I say lots and lots of money -- yet he won only 52% of the national vote, defeating McCain by just 6%. The margin of victory in other recent elections:

• 2004 - Bush 50.81 vs. Kerry 48.71
• 2000 - Bush 49.97 vs. Gore 46.46
• 1996 - Clinton 47.38 vs. Dole 41.02
• 1992 - Clinton 40.18 vs. Bush 38.35

All things considered, it could/should have been much worse for the Republi-cons.

What do you think?

What Next for the Rogue Diva

What next for the rogue Diva. Read:

CNN, Analysis: Palin rocked campaign, for good and bad
Dallas Morning News, Palin faces questions, different landscape when she returns to Alaska
National Review Online, The Palin Effect

Should Palin run in 2012? Vote in the NoBullU poll.

Liberals or Conservatives, Who Has the Sense of Humor

Do conservatives have more fun? Should liberals start describing themselves as humor-challenged? The answer(s) might surprise you. Read The New York Times, Basics | Obama and McCain Walk Into a Bar ... and Psychology Today, Who Enjoys Humor More: Conservatives or Liberals?

A Maverick Suggestion

For whomever wins the election, the first order of business should be to unite the country. The best way to do that would be to offer the office of the Vice President to the person who places second. Under the original terms of the Constitution, which did not foresee political parties, this was how the Vice President was selected. The members of the U.S. Electoral College voted only for office of president rather than for both president and vice president and each elector was allowed to vote for two people for the top office. The person receiving the greatest number of votes (provided that such a number was a majority of electors) would be president, while the individual who received the next largest number of votes became vice president.

We could use a little less party and a little more country if you asked me. Besides, will anyone really miss Biden or Palin.

Alright, fans of SNL will miss Palin, but I think we will see her again. Hopefully after she starts reading a few newspapers and has studied up on current events.


What do you think?

Final Polls and Predictions

The last polls and predictions:

Polly Vote: Obama by 6.0% with 353.72 electoral votes.
FiveThirtyEight: Obama by 6.1% with 348.6 electoral votes.
Princeton Election Consortium: Obama by 6.28% with 353 electoral votes.

Real Clear Politics: Obama by 7.6% with 338 electoral votes.

Obama 278, McCain 132, Toss Ups 128
No Toss Ups: Obama 338, McCain 200

Solid Obama Leaning Obama Solid McCain Leaning McCain Toss Up

State	Obama (D)	McCain (R)	RCP Average	RCP Status	2004	2000
Florida (27)	49.0	47.2	Obama +1.8	Toss Up	Bush +5.0	Bush +0.1
North Carolina (15)	48.0	48.4	McCain +0.4	Toss Up	Bush +12.4	Bush +12.8
Missouri (11)	47.8	48.5	McCain +0.7	Toss Up	Bush +7.2	Bush +3.3
Indiana (11)	46.4	47.8	McCain +1.4	Toss Up	Bush +20.7	Bush +15.7
Georgia (15)	45.8	49.8	McCain +4.0	Toss Up	Bush +16.6	Bush +11.7
Montana (3)	45.0	48.8	McCain +3.8	Toss Up	Bush +20.5	Bush +25.0
Arizona (10)	45.8	49.3	McCain +3.5	Toss Up	Bush +10.5	Bush +6.3
Virginia (13)	50.2	45.8	Obama +4.4	Toss Up	Bush +8.2	Bush +8.1
Ohio (20)	48.8	46.3	Obama +2.5	Toss Up	Bush +2.1	Bush +3.5
Colorado (9)	50.8	45.3	Obama +5.5	Leaning	Bush +4.7	Bush +8.4
Nevada (5)	50.0	43.2	Obama +6.8	Leaning	Bush +2.6	Bush +3.5
Pennsylvania (21)	51.0	43.7	Obama +7.3	Leaning	Kerry +2.5	Gore +4.2
New Mexico (5)	50.3	43.0	Obama +7.3	Leaning	Bush +0.7	Gore +0.1
South Dakota (3)	42.0	50.3	McCain +8.3	Leaning	Bush +21.5	Bush +22.7
West Virginia (5)	42.4	51.4	McCain +9.0	Leaning	Bush +12.9	Bush +6.3
Arkansas (6)	43.0	52.3	McCain +9.3	Leaning	Bush +9.7	Bush +5.4
Minnesota (10)	51.6	41.8	Obama +9.8	Leaning	Kerry +3.5	Gore +2.4
New Hampshire (4)	52.8	42.2	Obama +10.6	Solid	Kerry +1.3	Bush +1.3
South Carolina (8)	43.0	53.0	McCain +10.0	Solid	Bush +17.1	Bush +15.9
Wisconsin (10)	52.8	41.8	Obama +11.0	Solid	Kerry +0.4	Gore +0.2
Mississippi (6)	39.3	50.7	McCain +11.4	Solid	Bush +19.6	Bush +16.9
Iowa (7)	54.0	38.7	Obama +15.3	Solid	Bush +0.7	Gore +0.3
New Jersey (15)	54.5	39.0	Obama +15.5	Solid	Kerry +6.7	Gore +15.8
Oregon (7)	55.3	39.7	Obama +15.6	Solid	Kerry +4.2	Gore +0.5
Washington (11)	53.7	40.7	Obama +13.0	Solid	Kerry +8.2	Gore +5.5
Michigan (17)	52.5	39.5	Obama +13.0	Solid	Kerry +3.4	Gore +5.2
Maine (4)	54.4	38.8	Obama +15.6	Solid	Kerry +9.0	Gore +5.1
Texas (34)	40.5	53.5	McCain +13.0	Solid	Bush +22.9	Bush +21.3
California (55)	58.7	34.3	Obama +24.4	Solid	Kerry +9.9	Gore +11.8
Massachusetts (12)	57.0	35.7	Obama +21.3	Solid	Kerry +25.1	Gore +27.3
Kentucky (8)	41.0	54.5	McCain +13.5	Solid	Bush +19.9	Bush +15.1
Alaska (3)	40.7	56.0	McCain +15.3	Solid	Bush +25.6	Bush +30.9
Connecticut (7)	55.3	36.0	Obama +19.3	Solid	Kerry +10.3	Gore +17.5
New York (31)	62.0	32.3	Obama +29.7	Solid	Kerry +18.3	Gore +25.0
Tennessee (11)	38.8	52.8	McCain +14.0	Solid	Bush +14.3	Bush +3.9
Alabama (9)	33.5	56.8	McCain +23.3	Solid	Bush +25.7	Bush +14.9
Illinois (21)	59.0	34.3	Obama +24.7	Solid	Kerry +10.4	Gore +12.0

Rasmussen Report: Obama by 6.0% with at least 313 electoral votes.

State By State Balance of Power
Safe GOP (65)	Likely GOP (95)	Leans GOP (0)	Toss Up (92)	Leans Dem (26)	Likely Dem (114)	Safe Dem (146)
AK (3)	AR (6)		FL (27)	CO (9)	CT (7)	CA (55)
AL (9)	AZ (10)		IN (11)	NH (4)	IA (7)	DE (3)
ID (4)	GA (15)		MO (11)	VA (13)	ME (4)	DC (3)
KS (6)	MS (6)		MT (3)		MI (17)	HI (4)
KY (8)	NE (5)		NC (15)		MN (10)	IL (21)
LA (9)	ND (3)		NV (5)		NJ (15)	MD (10)
OK (7)	SC (8)		OH (20)		NM (5)	MA (12)
TN (11)	SD (3)				OR (7)	NY (31)
UT (5)	TX (34)				PA (21)	RI (4)
WY (3)	WV (5)				WA (11)	VT (3)
					WI (10)
www.rasmussenreports.com

Key Swing States in the 2008 Elections

Colorado: Obama by 5.5%
Florida: Obama by 1.8%
Indiana: McCain by 1.4%
Missouri: McCain by 0.7%
Nevada: Obama by 6.8%
New Hampshire: Obama by 12.5%
North Carolina: Obama by 0.4%
Ohio: Obama by 2.5%
Pennsylvania: Obama by 7.3%
Virginia.: Obama by 4.4%

UPDATED November 4, 2008

Doctors' Opinion of Financial Bail Out Package

The Allergists voted to scratch it, and the Dermatologists advised not to make any rash moves.

The Gastroenterologists had sort of a gut feeling about it, but the Neurologists thought the Administration had a lot of nerve, and the Obstetricians felt they were all laboring under a misconception.

The Ophthalmologists considered the idea shortsighted; the Pathologists yelled, 'Over my dead body!' while the Pediatricians said, 'Oh, Grow up!'

The Psychiatrists thought the whole idea was madness, the Radiologists could see right through it, and the Surgeons decided to wash their hands of the whole thing.

The Internists thought it was a bitter pill to swallow, and the Plastic Surgeons said, 'This puts a whole new face on the matter.'

The Podiatrists thought it was a step forward, but the Urologists felt the scheme wouldn't hold water.

The Anesthesiologists though t the whole idea was a gas, and the Cardiologists didn't have the heart to say no.

In the end, the Proctologists left the decision up to some as$@#%s in Washington.

First a Faux Plumber, Now a Fake Business Owner

Did you get an email that begins 'Dear Fellow Business Owner' allegedly written by JOOA Corp. It reminds me of the old joke -- 'How you know when a politician is lying? His lips are moving.'

Since Joe the so-called Plumber is leaving his short career as a plumber for a new one as a tone deaf country singer, the Republi-cons needed a replacement. Would someone call the acting union for Ward the so-called Business Owner of JOOA Corp.

Anything to get elected, now you know why I call them the Republi-cons.

In This Economic Mess Virtue is a Vice

According to the newest winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, the next step in the government response to the economic mess is a major fiscal stimulus in the form of actual government spending, as opposed to rebate checks. Read The New York Times, When Consumers Capitulate.

'A major fiscal stimulus in the form of actual government spending,' you can hear the Democrats in Washington crying in protest (NOT).

Class Today at No Bull U on WEBY

Listen to the voice of wisdom and reason in a wilderness of partisan rhetoric -- No political insanity, no conservative hypocrisy, no liberal foolishness -- Just straight talk, straight at you, and that’s no bull!!

NoBullU will be on air today, Friday, from 4:05 to 6 p.m. at 1330 AM WEBY and on line, courtesy of Cyber Smart Computers.

Today's topic: Who ya gonna vote for, and why -- in one minute for less.

Tune in, call in, but only if you can handle the truth!

Turket Shoot

The holiday season is here, so have a little fun shooting turkeys.

What was your score?

The Rats Are Abandoning Ship, Still

It might surprise you to know for whom American conservatives are voting. The American Conservative asked 18 conservatives, libertarians, and independent thinkers how they plan to vote and why. Read The American Conservative, The Right Choice?

By my count it was:

3 for McCain,
5 for Obama,
2 for Chuck Baldwin,
2 for Bob Barr,
1 write-in for Ron Paul,
1 write-in for someone I've never heard of, and
4 for none.

Not looking good for McCain.

Joe the So-Called Plumber's Plans Don't Include Plumbing

Sounds like Joe the so-called Plumber's future includes anything but plumbing. He also disses/snubs McCain in Ohio. Read FOXNews, Joe the Plumber Ponders His Future, but Dismisses Country Music Star Chatter.

Celebrity has gone to his head.

He and Palin would make a good couple, don't ya think.

If Obama Wins . . .

For some interesting pre-postmortem speculation about the future of our two great (NOT) political parties after an Obama win, read this blog, Boot's Blast, by "[t]he noted conservative, former Congressman John LeBoutillier - author of HARVARD HATES AMERICA - [he] writes strong - and unique commentary and analysis on all things political."

I hadn't heard about the alleged affair.

October Surprise Courtesy of Al-Qaeda?

Three suicide bombers mount a well-coordinated attack on an Afghan government building in the center of Kabul, a powerful car bomb explods at a university in the northern Spanish city of Pamplona wounding at least 15 people and setting a building on fire, and a series of coordinated blasts tear through India's volatile northeast killing at least 61 people and wounding more than 300 -- are these part of an October surprise courtesy of Al-Qaeda?

If so, who would Al-Qaeda favor in the presidential election?

Post Election Theme - Boundless Possibilities

And the pre-postmortems about the election continue. Read The New York Times, American Stories, that argues that "[i]n no other country could Barack Obama have risen so far and so fast. Such boundless possibility is what America once stood for and can stand for again."

Are You an Election Junkie?

Take this end-of-the-endless-election quiz, with questions mostly about who said what during the campaign, and post your score.

Bailout and Dividends

First it was reported that bailout money was being used to pay bonuses. Now read Washington Post, Banks to Continue Paying Dividends, which reports that "U.S. banks getting more than $163 billion from the Treasury Department for new lending are on pace to pay more than half of that sum to their shareholders, with government permission, over the next three years."

This is outrageous. Call your Congressman and demand that Congress rescind the bailout.

Throwing Good Money After Bad to Help Goldman Sachs

After a $123 billion bailout, will AIG collapse anyway. Read The New York Times, A Question for A.I.G.: Where Did the Cash Go? The article states that "tens of billions of dollars [from the bailout was used] to post collateral with other financial institutions, as required by A.I.G.’s many derivatives contracts." Goldman Sachs was one of those financial institutions. Wasn't Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. the former CEO of Goldman Sachs.

Me thinks that something smells fishy here.